A few weeks ago, while answering the Grey’s Anatomy question which generated so much talkback, I found myself searching for a specific term I knew had to exist: the human tendency to consider only the samples presented, ignoring other relevant items.

It felt like a fallacy, but it didn’t quite match up to any of the contenders I found online. If you squint really hard, you can make it look like a special case of the Fallacy of (Hasty) Generalization, but that seems a stretch for something which feels fairly commonplace. I ended up coining, “Fallacy of Limited Sampling” — with a mental sticky note to replace it once I found a better term.

To my surprise, I found the one over the middle of the Atlantic, during the 20+ hour flight to Africa: “silent evidence.”

That’s the term Nassim Nicholas Taleb uses to describe this phenomenon in The Black Swan. He introduces it with a story from Cicero:

Diagoras, a nonbeliever in the gods, was shown painted tablets bearing the portraits of some worshippers who prayed, then survived a subsequent shipwreck. The implication was that praying protects you from drowning.

Diagoras asked, “Where are the pictures of those who prayed, then drowned?”

Those “drowned believers” are silent evidence. You don’t take them into account because they can’t speak up for themselves. The cliché is that, “History is written by the winners.” In fact, it’s written by whoever happens to survive.

Following a discussion of the Phoenicians, and how their lack of literature is more likely due to the fragility of their paper rather than a failure of their culture, Taleb urges us to cast our nets widely:

Consider the thousands of writers now completely vanished from consciousness: their record did not enter analyses. We do not see the tons of rejected manuscripts because these have never been published, or the profile of actors who never won an audition –- therefore cannot analyze their attributes. To understand successes, the study of traits in failure need to be present. For instance, some traits that seem to explain millionaires, like appetite for risk, only appear because one does not study bankruptcies. If one includes bankrupt people in the sample, then risk-taking would not appear to be a valid factor explaining success. [Link]

Taleb calls this overlooked bulk of information “silent evidence.” I assumed that was a term of art, but Googling it now, most of the references point back to Taleb’s book. It’s possible that he is its primary champion. Regardless, I like it, and intend to use it liberally.

I didn’t mean for this to become a book review, but since I started…

There are many things I liked about The Black Swan. In addition to silent evidence, I found myself nodding my head to his discussion of the confirmation bias (we tend to notice things that fit our theories), Platonicity (confusion of the model with what it’s modeling), and the narrative fallacy — our need to create a story which explains events after they happened, even if the causality is questionable (or impossible). Thus we write history books explaining how World War I started, when if you were reading the newspapers of the time, these “causes” wouldn’t have shown up.

Taleb’s central thesis is that there are unexpected incidents (Black Swans) which have enormous, disproportionate impact on our world: terrorist attacks, bank failures, iPods. By definition, we can’t predict them — which means any prediction about the future at all is extremely dubious. The best we can do is constantly remind ourselves of the limits of our knowledge, and make some contingency for the completely unexpected.¹

I’ve always been leery of statements like, “By 2075, the U.S. population will total 1 billion.” Taleb’s book helps justify my frustration at these seeemingly-scientific projections, which discount what we inherently know about the future: that we know much less than we think.

Despite these interesting points, I can’t honestly recommend Taleb’s book. Too much of it feels like being stuck next to an immodest guest at an interminable dinner party. I found myself skimming whenever I saw the words, “Lebanon,” “French,” or “Yevgenia.” It’s not Freakonomics. My hope is that an ambitious editor convinces Taleb to let her cut it down to a book half as long and twice as readable.

1. Donald Rumsfeld took a lot of flack for his Yogi Berra-like koan about “Unknown Unknowns” at a Defense Department briefing in 2002, which Slate put in verse form. I’m scared to say: he’s actually kind of right. Acknowledging that there are “unknown unknowns” is important. ↩

Are you in TRANSFORMERS? There’s a quick shot of a soldier escorting someone away from a helicopter. On screen for two or three seconds. Looks EXACTLY like you.

Just curious.

– Ben
Los Angeles

I haven’t seen the movie yet, but as far as I know, I am not in Transformers. I have a somewhat ordinary face, and coupled with my big bald head, it’s not uncommon for someone at the gym to say, “You were really good last night on Law and Order.” (Apparently, my doppelganger was a white supremacist.)

But I can’t say definitively that I’m not in Transformers.

Years ago, a friend called to say, “I saw you in ‘L.A. Doctors!’” That was a CBS show at the time. She described the scene: I was walking a pug on Melrose Avenue. Which was in fact my dog. I was probably walking home from Starbucks when a second-unit camera crew caught me. (Yes, they should have had me sign a release. No, it’s never worth pursuing.)

I guess it’s possible the filmmakers digitally put my face on some random soldier. They certainly had the technology; they put all those tentacles on Bill Nighy for the second and third Pirates movies. But Occam’s Razor would suggest it’s probably just a guy who looks like me.

I brought my videocamera with me to Malawi, only to discover upon unpacking it that the main sensor was shot: it could record sound, but not video. In retrospect, this was a fortuitous failure.

Looking at things through a lens–or on a tiny flip-out monitor–creates a layer of distance, of safety. On a subconscious level, it feels like you’re watching TV. I would have watched, but not seen.

And given my obsessive need for coverage, I probably would have shot so much footage that I could never have begun editing it down.

So, lacking a proper videocamera, I just shot with my digital still camera. The clips had to be very short; I only had a 1GB card, and no way to off-load it. But I think it worked out for the best. What I ended up with are more like video snapshots. They don’t tell a story. They simply capture a moment.

I’ve posted a few more up in my YouTube channel. Here’s a sampler.

Q: What side of the road do they drive on in Malawi?
A: The center.

There’s only one paved road in Mulanje, which has to be shared by cars, bikes and pedestrians. The dirt roads are strictly one car wide. They recently plowed the road towards Kumwamba Centre, so there’s hope it may be paved before too long. You can see the in-progress road on this second version of the drive to the church on Sunday, featuring the song that’s been stuck in my head for 10 days.